Bitcoin price bounced back to $96,400 levels recovering from the lows of $91,000 earlier this week. With $9.4 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options expiring today, volatility can sweep in again as investors await the next directional move either to $90,000 or $100,000.
Where is Bitcoin Price Heading Next?
For the past many years, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with the Global M2 money supply. The latest data shows that the global M2 supply has been drying up fast which could lead to a BTC price pullback under $90,000. Moreover, following the rally to $100K earlier this month, Bitcoin is trading in a downward trending pattern. Popular analyst Rekt Capital noted that if Bitcoin price doesn’t give a daily close above the resistance, it could risk going to $91,000 again.
Source: Rekt Capital
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a crucial demand zone for Bitcoin at $93,580. At this level, approximately 667,000 wallet addresses collectively acquired nearly 504,000 BTC. Martinez said that it is important for the bulls to hold these levels in order to prevent further Bitcoin price correction from here.
Source: Ali Martinez
On the other hand, Martinez also expects a Thanksgiving rally for Bitcoin. He showed that the BTC price is breaking out from a flag and pole pattern in the short term which could take it to its all-time high of around $99,000. “This is why I think BTC is bound for a rebound to $99,000, and the technicals support it, he wrote.
Source: Ali Charts
Commenting on the development and Bitcoin price action, Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, told CNBC:
“Bitcoin has been on a tear since Election Day … with very few pullbacks, but the $100,000 mark remains a formidable psychological barrier. While breaking through now would be a major bullish signal, a brief pullback may be needed to gather momentum before the next attempt.”
The inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have also slowed down this week. BlackRock Bitcoin ETF IBIT saw zero inflows for two consecutive days in a row. This shows a slowdown in institutional interest as big players take a wait-and-watch approach.
What Does BTC Options Expiry Suggest?
On Friday, Nov. 29, 98,500 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire carrying a notional value of $9.48 billion, more than triple the size of last week’s expiry. This week’s Bitcoin options show a put/call ratio of 0.84, indicating that slightly more long (call) contracts are expiring compared to short (put) contracts. Also, the max paint point is currently at $80,000.
Data from Deribit reveals that open interest—representing the value of unexpired options contracts—is concentrated at the $100,000 strike price, with $2 billion in open interest recorded at this level.
Source: Deribit
Looking ahead, the year-end options expiry in December is set to dominate the market, with 40% of positions set to expire. With over 20% of positions expiring this week alone, traders anticipate significant position reshuffling. Popular options trading platform Greeks.Live noted:
“We got a 11% pullback on $BTC and people are literally saying the end is imminent. It was literally less than 10 days ago when the same people were asking for a pullback to buy. Now they are saying “I’ll wait for lower”.
As of press time, the BTC price is trading at $96,198 with its daily trading volume dropping by 33% under $50 billion. The Bitcoin options volume has dropped 25% to $22.63 billion while the 24-hour liquidations have surged to $30 million, per the Coinglass data.
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