The Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers at $97,000, inches away from its historic $100k milestone ahead of today’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). The US jobs report aka NFP threatens to expose deepening cracks in the US labor market due to Trump’s tariff war. Economists are forecasting 130k new jobs added in April, down sharply from last month’s 228k. How will Bitcoin, US dollar and the Fed react to the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls today?
What to Expect From the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Today?
Bitcoin price hovers around $97k with a large negative funding rate, hinting that investors are preparing for a correction ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll report today. The current consensus is the addition of 130k new jobs in April, which is far lower than March’s 228k. A weak jobs report would confirm that Trump’s tariff war and global economic tensions are now strangling Main Street.
Apart from the usual volatility, investors can expect a short-term correction in Bitcoin but a sustained rally in the long run, while the US dollar could undergo a steep correction.
Key Market Movers to Watch Ahead of US Jobs Data
Investors are losing confidence that Trump can negotiate a deal with China. The panic and fear of trade negotiations failing has pushed investors to question the relief rally seen across the US stock and crypto markets.
A lower than expected NFP print, especially below 100k could trigger a domino effect that crashes the US dollar lower and catalyzing a massive Bitcoin price rally.
The US recession odds have climbed to 63% according to Polymarket data. Rabobank puts the recession odds at 50%.
Impact of Weak Nonfarm Payroll Report on BTC, DXY, & Fed
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rises: Although the funding rate of BTC has dropped to -0.0083%, the chances of continuing the uptrend are high. A $100k retest is likely by BTC price if NFP comes below 100k.
Dollar Index (DXY) Collapse: DXY is already down 11% in 100 days but could nosedive below 100 again, potentially to 90.
Global Investor Exodus: Failure to negotiate tariffs with China, India, and the EU could trigger a USD sell-off, tanking Treasuries and stocks.
Fed Forced to Cut Rates: With stagflation risks rising (sticky inflation and weak growth), the Fed may slash rates by September to avoid recession.
Bitcoin Price at $97k: Negative Funding Rates Signal Short Squeeze Risk
Despite BTC’s 30% surge in 14 days from $74k to $97k, negative funding rates reveal traders are aggressively shorting this Bitcoin rally. A weak NFP, ideally lower than expectation print could further fuel this rally, potentially after a short-term correction. A minor correction during the NFP data release could fuel shorts only to squeeze them as BTC price attempts $100k retest.
Here’s how Bitcoin price could react to NFP.
Short-Term Dip: A broad market panic might briefly drag BTC’s value to $92k, a key support level.
Long-Term Rocket Fuel: A crumbling dollar and Fed dovishness would supercharge demand for hard assets like BTC. With more than $3b in spot ETF inflows in this week, the strong inflows serve as a proxy of investor confidence in BTC.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $100k or $92k? NFP Will Decide
Bitcoin price prediction remains skewed in favor of bulls. Here are some key levels to watch.
Expect $100k Retest in a bull case $100k: Weak NFP and Fed’s dovishness could further fuel the BTC’s digital gold narrative, pushing Bitcoin price higher,
A $92k retest in a bear case: In case of a higher than expectation NFP print, BTC could trigger a temporary sell-off coupled with US stocks market crash. Despite this correction, expect an institutional dip-buying spree for BTC.
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