The recent Bitcoin (BTC) rally has pushed it from $80k to $90k in a few days, flipping crypto market sentiment bullish. However, a closer look at BTC’s energy value suggests a fair Bitcoin price is $130k instead of where it currently trades – $90k, a whopping 40% discount.
Fair Bitcoin Price is $130k, Says Crypto Pundit
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin’s Energy Value is the “intrinsic value of Bitcoin as calculated by Joules of energy input only.” Based on this indicator, the fair value of Bitcoin price should be around $130k, but BTC’s price today trades at roughly $93k, which is a 40% discount.
“We are one year post Halving and Bitcoin is trading at a whopping 40% discount to its intrinsic value.”
Bitcoin Energy Value is at $130K. We are one year post Halving and Bitcoin is trading at a whopping 40% discount to its intrinsic value. pic.twitter.com/kbqTgTPp5d
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 25, 2025
While this is an interesting proposition, a better look at fair value is the average cost required to mine a BTC. Based on MicroMacro data, this value stands at $96k, just $3,000 higher the current price of $93k
Bitcoin Price vs. Average Mining Cost per BTC
Regardless of what is fair value, let’s explore Bitcoin technical analysis and what to expect next in the short and mid-term timeframes.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: What’s next for BTC?
On a daily timeframe, there are three key value areas to note. These zones are where 68% of the volume was traded when Bitcoin price consolidated for long durations.
BTC consolidated for three months in late 2024, creating a value area between $93k to $103k. A breakdown of this balanced area led to an 18% correction.
The 18% correction was followed by another rangebound movement that created the 2nd value area, extending from $81k to $88k.
After the recent 20% rally in Bitcoin price in April, BTC is knocking on the lower limit of the $93k to $103k value area. If bulls manage to flip and hold above $93k, there is a good chance of price rotating back to value area high of $103k.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
On the other hand a rejection at 93k and reentry into the $81k to $88k zone will likely invalidated of recent created higher lows at $83k and revisit $81k. In a dire case, Bitcoin might look at revisit the eight month consolidation area where value extends from $70k to $60k. This is the third key value area.
The highest traded volume inside this range is around $65k, which many crypto analysts and traders expect to be the bottom should the uptrend fail to manifest.
To conclude, there are two key levels that Bitcoin price prediction notes regardless of where the fair value is – $93k and $88k. Strong buying activity will lead to a push toward $100k and higher. Rejection, on the other hand, could lead to a revisit of $70k or lower.
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