Dogecoin (DOGE) price has been underperforming due to capital rotation to new meme coins, but a trend reversal is now looming. Technical analysis, on-chain data, and macro factors suggest that it might make a parabolic 135% surge to $0.40 before May ends.
DOGE value today remains flat with a modest 0.05% gain to trade at $0.174 with an intraday low of $0.169. The meme coin’s volatility has also been notably low over the past week, as traders adopt a “sit-and-wait” approach after Bitcoin’s rally to $96,000 sparked speculation about the return of a bull market.
DOGE/USDT: 4-Hour Chart
Despite the choppy moves, three factors have aligned and tease towards a price rally for Dogecoin to as high as $0.40, with this upswing expected to occur in the coming weeks.
Dogecoin Price Closes a Monthly FVG Gap
Dogecoin price is showing signs of strength, according to a recent X post by analyst Polaris.xbt on X who noted that it had closed a monthly FVG gap, and it was now trading within a stable consolidation range that could spark an upward breakout.
In his analysis, he stated that the Dogecoin price forecast is positive, and if it can defend support at the bottom range of this consolidation zone, it faces the next major hurdle at $0.22. If it breaks out from this resistance level, it may enter a sustained uptrend past $0.40, which will mimic the DOGE ETF approval rally.
Dogecoin Price Chart
Conversely, if DOGE fails to make a clean breakout from the current consolidation zone and slips, it faces critical support at $0.10, at which point it will have wiped out the entire Q4 rally triggered by President Trump’s election.
On-Chain Data Signals DOGE Price Bottom
Besides technical analysis, data from Santiment, specifically the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, suggests that the price of Dogecoin may have hit a local bottom, a factor that often precedes an upward recovery.
DOGE 365D MVRV Ratio
At press time, the 365-day MVRV had plunged to -37%, indicating that most holders are underwater, which suggests that the top meme coin is undervalued and may make a strong upward trend. Doing so will mirror past patterns, like in the second half of 2024, whereby DOGE went on a parabolic rally after the MVRV signalled a bottom.
DOGE ETF Approval Odds Hit 64%
The high approval odds for a spot Dogecoin ETF might also catalyze the next bullish break for price, as Polymarket reveals that the approval odds now stand at 64%. Meanwhile, Bloomberg analysts stated that there is an 80% chance of a DOGE ETF approval for the three issuers that have filed for the product.
Polymarket
As optimism towards the approval of this product increases, Dogecoin is likely to make an upward breakout in May 2025. Moreover, as Coingape recently reported, DOGE will rally significantly if it captures 30% to 50% of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Summary
Dogecoin price is on the verge of a major rally as three signals suggest that the meme coin may reach $0.40 in May 2025. The closure of a monthly FVG gap, the 365-day MVRV ratio, and the increased odds of a spot DOGE ETF approval hint that it may have hit a local bottom and now eyes gains.
The post 3 Reasons Dogecoin Price Could Reach $0.40 in May 2025 appeared first on CoinGape.
